As someone who didn't grow up here, increasingly I feel like I want to support my Taiwanese friends but by wading into the fray would only compromise my ability to serve. I also have a lot of friends in Texas who are from China (and a few in China too), and I know they see things differently. That's the tough part. It's not that we see the same thing and argue about it, everyone sees it differently. The argument is that you're seeing it wrong. The best one can hope to do as an outsider is ask questions and try to piece together what the historical and political context actually looks like. One problem is that even the words you use to describe the situation demonstrate how you feel about it. It's hard or impossible to find neutral vocabulary.
I've noticed people's eyes tend to glaze over when I try to explain the complicated relationship between Taiwan and China, because there's no way to do it without going back and explaining history. I am going to try an analogy which uses a sort of alternate American history, which might help people get a better handle on the situation, if they have any wish to do so. It's long, but the familiar names and geographical nearness might help people picture the relationships better, and take away the associations we make with the actual countries involved. Those familiar with the issue might even find it amusing.
A final note: I am not trying to imply anything by my selection of which country to represent which country, except a very rough geographical parallel if you flip East Asia and rotate it 90 degrees. Also, the Soviet Union represents itself, there wasn't another good choice for the historical/geographic context.
So, then, imagine if...
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| See how quickly you can guess which country represents which... |
...After the forces of the British Monarchy were defeated in America, there were just the Articles of Confederation, and no one got around to a Constitution so quickly. The United States was very much a collection of various states and not so much a unified country, and states and regional alliances scuffled with each other, though order was slowly being established.
Let us then say that Mexico had, previously, decided that rather than be a colony of Spain or anyone else they wanted to be a Power too, and went through a surprisingly rapid period of modernization, reaching WWI levels of technology while the various American States still retained the Jeffersonian ideal of "keeping the factories in Europe" and maintained a traditionally conservative agrarian society. The north/south cultural differences still applied, but did not lead to a north/south Civil War, and America was considered to have two capitols, the southern capitol of Atlanta, and the northern one of New York City.
Now Mexico, on dubious grounds, announced that the newly developing state of Texas could not be considered part of the United States, and occupied it as part of the Mexican Empire, which also spanned across the Caribbean and included French Louisiana, as the result of a previous clash with the British Empire in America. (England lost badly, contributing to its overthrow and the establishment of the new democratic government in America.)
Meanwhile as in real history, labor union activists and crypto-anarchists formed a movement from within which various leaders rose to power. One, we'll call him Boss Moe, was particularly revered and ended up as both the symbolic and real leader of the whole movement. This uprising happened across a wide swath of the country, and the activists were influential in various places and controlled some state and city governments. In the Southern capitol of Atlanta, however, a national constitution was being drafted, and it was decided that the weakly-linked states should become a united country.
The constitution called for a government with a legislature and president. George Washington, being a respected statesman who had fought in the revolutionary war against England was chosen. He was popular both with Constitutionalists and the Labor activists, who called themselves Communists, but with the delay between the revolution and establishing a constitution was quite old. After his passing, the new president -we'll call him Sean Cachét- was a strong supporter of the new constitutional government and also strongly opposed to the Communists. He launched a campaign to bring the states into a stronger union, and also began to lead the Constitutionalists in a fight against the Communists, resulting in a civil war.
It was at this time that the Mexican Empire invaded the United States, using its more advanced army to push from Texas across the South to take the Southern Capitol of Atlanta in a bloody battle, then subjecting the city to widespread pillaging and atrocities. Sean Cachet and Boss Moe signed a temporary truce in order to fight their mutual foe, but both knew their fight would resume if Mexico was ever defeated.
Gradually during this time Europe had been consumed in a massive war, and their various colonies and allies were affected. Brazil, having broken free of Portuguese rule long ago, was an economic powerhouse, and had succeeded in taking over nearly all of the South American continent. Worried that Brazil might try to interfere with its plans in the Caribbean, Mexico launched a surprise attack on a major Brazilian navy base on Trinidad, destroying a good portion of its Caribbean Navy. Brazil declared war on the Mexican Empire, and eventually defeated it totally, having intervened successfully in the European War as well.
It was decided after the war that the areas taken over by the Mexican Empire should be restored to the nations to which they originally belonged. One area of confusion was Cuba, which had previously been part of the British Empire in America but had already been part of the Mexican Empire during the Revolutionary war and subsequent rise of the US government. Though Brazil debated the idea of retaining control of Cuba, as it had Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, it was decided after some discussion that having originally been part of America, giving it to the new constitutionally-established United States of America which currently governed America made the most sense.
Shortly after the war ended, as expected, the fight between the Constitutionally-elected government of the US led by Sean Cachet and the Communist movement under Boss Moe resumed. Eventually, through the leadership of Moe, a lot of grassroots support, and some risky strategic moves that paid off, the Communists got the upper hand. The Constitutional government was pushed back, eventually moving their base of operations from the Capitol in Atlanta off the mainland to Havana, Cuba.
Cuba was now an interesting place. The original inhabitants were fierce Caribbean tribes, many with a tradition of headhunting, who over time had largely been displaced from the coastal areas by early American settlers, mostly from Florida. Those living in the mountains had resisted the Mexican occupiers so strongly that they were mostly annihilated, though their deeds resulted in a change of policy in the Mexican Empire to treat local populations less severely to prevent similar uprisings. Mexico had also built up the first real infrastructure in Cuba, however, establishing roads and bridges and schools and plantations. Many Floridians living in Cuba spoke Mexican Spanish, some thought of themselves as citizens of the Mexican Empire, and most had begun to take the benefits of Mexico's advanced levels of technology and civilization for granted.
Some prominent Cubans had tried to declare independence for Cuba after the war ended, setting up their own local government, but with the arrival of Sean Cachet's troops to establish control of the island, most vanished mysteriously. Many Cubans with roots in Florida and other parts of America were initially excited to be part of America again, but were disappointed by the harshness with which they were treated by the incoming troops, many of whom came from remote parts of the USA and were unfamiliar with the customs and more modernized society to which Cubans had grown accustomed. Cubans were increasingly upset to find they were treated not as long-lost Americans being returned to the fold, but as a colony that was merely another piece in the struggle for the American mainland.
After some violent incidents which led to uprisings among Cubans, martial law was established, as Sean Cachet and the defeated Constitutionalists were forced from the mainland entirely and retreated to Cuba, bringing with them American symbolic artifacts like the Liberty Bell, to preserve the American government and plan their next steps. Boss Moe and the Communists, wishing to finish off their foe entirely, planned to launch an attack from the Florida Keys, but the Constitutionalists fought them off and retained control of several of the Keys. Meanwhile Cubans were treated with suspicion by the USA Government based in Havana, and numerous searches for Communist sympathizers were held. The local Cuban Spanish was banned from public use, and children were taught American history, with Cuban history suppressed or altered. At the same time, economic and land reforms took place which laid the ground for decades of prosperity. Former tenant farmers were given their land, with much extra labor going into industrialization, which was modernized with the help of the basic infrastructure Mexico had already put in, and considerable post-war aid from Brazil.
As time went on, though the USA maintained for years that an offensive would be launched from Cuba to retake the American mainland, it became obvious this was not possible. Moe consolidated Communist control of America, moved the new Red Capitol up to the old northern capitol of New York City, and declared the foundation of the PUSA, the People's United States of America. Moe continued to rule until he died, exalted by Americans as the father of the New America, despite having initiated flawed economic reforms based on communist ideology that caused a massive famine and the deaths of tens of millions of Americans. His successors, praising him as their spiritual example, nevertheless pursued a more pragmatic course, and America's economy soon began to develop.
Brazil, staunchly anti-Communist, still recognized the USA as the legitimate government of America and provided some level of support, though this was made more difficult by the fact that USA rule in Cuba was not democratic, and the government continued to detain and execute Cubans accused of Communist sympathies. Most non-Communist nations, followed Brazil in continuing to recognize the USA as the legitimate government of America, but as time went on and it became clear that the PUSA was the new permanent government of America, some began to recognize it.
The USA government, permanently exiled in Cuba, berated those who would choose to side with Communists over them, but eventually even Brazil changed over, recognizing the PUSA as the government of America. In doing so, however, it also committed to protect the USA from Communist aggression. With Brazil as the Caribbean Superpower, the PUSA therefore could do nothing against the USA at this point, though it demanded that Cuba be "reunified" with the rest of America, a complex claim considering that while Cuba had been considered part of its American Empire by Britain, it had at no point been part of either the USA or the PUSA. The PUSA's claim was that, being now synonymous with America, the USA must be an illegitimate government, a renegade province, and what had once been considered part of America ought to be returned to it. Hundreds of millions of Americans, having grown up hearing no other opinion and patriotic to their country, said the same.
Brazil's situation was complicated. On the one hand, geopolitical pragmatism dictated that the PUSA -now considered synonymous with America and usually simply referred to as America- Communist or not, with its massive population and rising economy would be a major player on the world stage in the days to come. On the other hand, with the Cold War going on between the Free world and Communism, Brazil's citizens and congress strongly supported the US, as an ally against Communism in the Caribbean and also a nation that was at least nominally a Constitutional and democratic government like itself. This led to Brazil not conducting official nation-to-nation diplomacy but doing quite a bit of nonofficial business on an ongoing basis, including selling advanced Brazilian weapons to the USA to help deter the PUSA from trying a forceful annexation. Meanwhile it assured the PUSA that it considered there to be only one America, not two.
After a ruined Mexico accepted the terms of complete surrender demanded by Brazil, Brazil turned around to rebuild Mexico, where it maintains military bases to this day. Also to this day, Mexico is vilified by the PUSA and hated by many in America, for the memory of the destruction wrought in the invasion and the cruelty of the occupation and atrocities committed in places like Atlanta. This stands in noticeable contrast to Cubans, who have a more ambivalent view as they mostly don't consider the Mexican occupation to have been any more damaging to their island than the American one that followed, and Mexican media and culture remain influential and popular in Cuba.
In Cuba, Sean Cachet had passed away and his son who succeeded him as president-for-life had eventually allowed increased liberties among Cubans. When his son in turned passed away, the first free election in Cuba was held, and the first native-born USA president of Cuba, Lee Dunway, began his term. It was then that the idea of a nation of Cuba began to be revived, decades after having been crushed with the arrival of the USA after the defeat of Mexico. At the time, the USA government recognized no such idea, as it regarded Cuba as merely one of the provincial territories of America to which circumstances had restricted it. This claim extended to all former parts of America, including even Alaska which had since become its own nation, nestled uneasily between the powers of the PUSA and Soviet Russia.
USA citizens were divided on the question of their identity as well. Asking someone who lived in Cuba whether they were American, some, especially those who came to Cuba with the US relocation, would say "of course, we're all American." Others, especially those who traced their lineage back to the Floridians who came before the Mexican colonization, would likely reply. "Of course not, my family have lived in Cuba for ages, I know nothing of America, I am Cuban," and might even react to being called American with anger, thinking of the USA treatment of native Cubans. But with Lee Dunway as US president, Cuba entered a new era, and something like a Cuban identity began to emerge. Slowly people began to use the terms USA and Cuba interchangeably.
On the American mainland, the lure of America's vast market had attracted much foreign investment, and a modernizing economy allowed America to strengthen and modernize its armed forces as well. "Returning Cuba to America" remained a major military goal. The Florida Straits had always been a barrier to this, since the USA's Brazilian and domestic weapons advantage made invading across the strait a very difficult and costly exercise. But in the years that followed, as following the fall of the Soviet Union Brazil enjoyed sole world superpower status, America began to close the gap.
A gap still remained, however, as proven when America launched missiles into the Florida strait to convey its displeasure of Lee Dunway's pro-Cuba policy as he sought reelection (an election they sought to influence even as they didn't recognize it). In response, Brazil, who had previously not permitted Dunway to enter the country, sent aircraft carriers to the Florida Strait, a clear message that they intended to enforce their policy of preserving the status quo. As a result America pulled back, but made a strong bid to increase its power in the Florida Strait so that foreign intervention in its own coastal waters would be impossible in the future. It also continued to buy off the few nations which still recognized the USA as the government of America, providing economic incentives for them to swap to recognizing the PUSA instead. It also used its growing influence and seat on the permanent UN security council to ban the USA from participating in various global organizations and pressured other nations not to having dealings with them.
The internal debate in Cuba raged, with many people claiming the USA had no choice but to join with the PUSA, called it "rejoining America." "After all," they said "we are Americans too. It's better for Americans to be united than divided against each other in this way. And our economy can never recover apart from America, America is too big and too close. Eventual unification is inevitable." Other hotly protested. "Cuba is Cuba. It may have been part of the British Empire in America but it was never really part of America, and we are not Americans anyway, we are Cubans. Joining America would only mean we would lose both our freedom and our identity." Some sought to find a third way, claiming that they would be willing to join the PUSA as a "reunited" "America" but only if the PUSA would reform and become a democratic government more similar to the USA.
The debate among Cubans continues to this day, with an increasing number of USA citizens identifying themselves as Cuban, and considering the USA government to simply be the government of a country called Cuba. This country of Cuba, however, is recognized officially by no one, not even itself, though a few small nations still recognize the USA government as that of America. Recently there was a push for the USA to join the United Nations as "Cuba," reflecting a shift on the part of people the USA government as well. However not everyone agrees.
(And now I think we can wrap up our little game for a conclusion on where things stand now:)
Ironically, as Taiwanese have increasingly seen themselves not as Chinese people living in Taiwan but as having a unique Taiwan-based identity (an identity perceived by many Taiwanese people with older and deeper roots here all along), the current Republic of China administration has worked to improve relations with the People's Republic of China, trying to walk what seems an impossible path, but one in which clarification in any direction could theoretically mean World War 3. Direct flights between Taiwan and Mainland China have already been established for a while now, and various economic and investment agreements have been made. It is unknown how all this will look in the future, with the Taiwanese populace increasingly seeing itself as "Taiwanese," the ROC and PROC both seeking closer ties between Taiwan and China while neither acknowledges claiming the existence of any country called Taiwan and both claim to be the sole rightful government of China. Massive protests occurred last year, partly because of the increasingly wide gap between this growing sense of Taiwanese identity among the citizenry and the government's insistence on staying on the pragmatic path to nowhere. Yet, as I said, any attempt to rectify the situation has the potential to produce dire outcomes, which is why the US opposes any unilateral attempts to change the situation. (The current administration seems to be trying to therefore proceed very slowly in a bilateral way, which some officials in China seem amenable to, but it does so to a great extent against the wishes and self-determination of the Taiwanese people)
The US, much less able to interfere in the Taiwan Strait than during the days of Lee Teng-hui but still the greatest power in the Pacific, has claimed it opposes a unilateral move from either side to change the situation, either by the Republic of China government to claim it is not the (non)government of China but of something called Taiwan, or by China to attack Taiwan and take control of the island.
Meanwhile, Beijing has made moves to adjust the borders and sphere of control of China, especially in the East and South China Seas, to the alarm of various surrounding nations. Japan, at first forcibly disarmed and then voluntarily limited to self-defense forces since the end of the War, has begun to rebuild its army again.
As an outsider, what I hear my Taiwanese friends wanting to say is:
We are Taiwan! Taiwan is our home and we love it, and we want the world to know about it too. The government should hear our voice, remember that the future of Taiwan is not China but us the people of Taiwan, and stop ignoring us to act on its own. We are watching.
And what I hear the current administration of Taiwan wanting to say is:
We are the Republic of China! Young people should remember everything they enjoy is because of our hard work. We are walking on a tightrope, and China is waiting at the other end. If we don't move, we fall, but we don't want to run either, and we don't dare cut the rope and trust the safety nets. So we are trying to walk very, very slowly. Stop shaking the rope.
The two sides both make some valid points but there doesn't seem to be any way to reconcile them, since one's future relies on changes that seem likely to make the future look untenable to those who have to make those changes. So, there are lots of arguments... pray for Taiwan!
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